Underscoring the risk that hopes for a quick turnaround may be premature, the World Bank said Thursday that it expected the global economy to shrink nearly 3 percent in 2009, far deeper than the 1.7 percent contraction it predicted slightly more than two months ago.

Although the bank said that it expected growth in developed countries to resume next year, emerging-market countries could feel the effects of “aftershocks” for several years, as the full impact of the worst downturn since World War II became apparent.

“It’s quite clear that even if the developed world starts on a path of recovery, for many developing countries, it will take longer,” the World Bank’s president, Robert B. Zoellick, said Thursday. “Financial markets seem to have broken the fall but there are clear fragilities and risks remain.”

“Some of these fragile developing economies don’t have any cushion,” he added.

The gloomy outlook is likely to top the agenda this weekend as finance ministers gather for a Group of 8 meeting in Lecce, Italy, and assess progress since the broader G-20 summit meeting with President Obama and other world leaders in London in early April.

Source/Full Story: NYTimes.com

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