The Leap from Species to Species

Scientists now believe that the virus jumped from pigs to humans in January, probably in Mexico. The virus has circulated, unnoticed, among pigs for years, as Andrew Rambaut of the University of Edinburgh writes in the journal Science. If pigs in feedlots were checked regularly for new viruses, it might have been possible to prevent the H1N1 virus from making the leap from species to species. Now it’s too late.

By the fall, when the normal seasonal flu wave begins, the virus will likely strike the northern hemisphere with a vengeance. London epidemiologist Neil Ferguson predicts that one in three people will contract the new flu strain within three to four months. So far, the vast majority of cases has not been fatal; the symptoms, which include fever, coughing, a sore throat and often diarrhea, disappear after about five days.

Nevertheless, a full-blown flu pandemic remains one of the more terrifying and unpredictable forces of nature, sweeping across the earth and doing as it pleases. Even in the 21st century, despite all of our knowledge and technology, we are still unable to get the better of a tiny fragment of infectious genetic material.

Millions of people suddenly falling ill and staying home from work could lead to tremendous economic damage or worse. In addition, a pandemic can overstrain the capacity of even the most robust healthcare systems. Respirators and hospital beds could become scarce, as could doctors, nurses and even ambulance drivers.

Won’t Simply Disappear

Experts estimate that hundreds of thousands, possibly even more, have already been infected with the H1N1 virus. Laboratory tests for the virus have come back positive in about 30,000 cases. So far, only 145 people are known to have died — a lethality rate no higher than the ordinary flu. Although the majority of those who died had other health problems, some did not. WHO has identified an accumulation of severe and deadly cases in pregnant women and healthy people aged between 30 and 50, a conclusion that has many experts worried.

“The severity of the illness caused by this virus could worsen in the future,” warns WHO Assistant Director-General Keiji Fukuda. Flu viruses are notorious for their ability to mutate. There have been many cases in the past when they began as a nuisance but then mutated and turned into killer viruses. It happened in 1918, when the influenza virus killed only a few people at first, but then claimed about 50 million lives, most of them younger people.

The number of H1N1 cases continues to climb.

Although no physician can predict the progression of the 2009 pandemic, it is clear that it will not simply disappear and will likely be around for a while. Instead, mankind will have to learn to live with the new virus. The pandemic will only subside once a sufficient amount of immunity has spread through the population, either as a result of large-scale vaccinations or people having contracted and survived the infection. Experience has shown that this can take years.

The especially daring — or insane — are taking what they view as preventive action by seeking contacts on the Internet for swine flu infection parties. Their reasoning? Better sick now than dead later.

At this point, H1N1 causes relatively mild symptoms. However, if a more aggressive version of the virus takes hold in a second wave, those now seeking to deliberately contract the virus hope that they will already have developed immunity to it.

Source/Full Story: SPIEGEL ONLINE

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