G.O.O.D

Literally, the bottom line:  “ The last great era of globalisation peaked just before 1914. You know the rest of the story. “

Source: Telegraph

Greece has been in turmoil for 11 days. The mood seems to have turned “pre-insurrectionary” in parts of Athens - to borrow from the Marxist handbook.

This is a foretaste of what the world may face as the “crisis of capitalism” - another Marxist phase making a comeback - starts to turn two hundred million lives upside down.

We are advancing to the political stage of this global train wreck. Regimes are being tested. Those relying on perma-boom to mask a lack of democratic or ancestral legitimacy may try to gain time by the usual methods: trade barriers, sabre-rattling, and barbed wire.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, is worried enough to ditch a half-century of IMF orthodoxy, calling for a fiscal boost worth 2pc of world GDP to “prevent global depression”.

“If we are not able to do that, then social unrest may happen in many countries, including advanced economies. We are facing an unprecedented decline in output. All around the planet, the people have reacted with feelings going from surprise to anger, and from anger to fear,” he said.

Russia has begun to shut down trade as it adjusts to the shock of Urals oil below $40 a barrel. It has imposed import tariffs of 30pc on cars, 15pc on farm kit, and 95pc on poultry (above quota levels). “It is possible during the financial crisis to support domestic producers by raising customs duties,” said Premier Vladimir Putin.

Russia is not alone. India and Vietnam have imposed steel tariffs. Indonesia is resorting to special “licences” to choke off imports.

The Kremlin is alarmed by a 13pc fall in industrial output over the last five months. There have been street protests in Moscow, St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Vladivostok and Barnaul. Police crushed “Dissent Marchers” holding copies of Russia’s constitution above their heads in Moscow’s Triumfalnaya Square.

“Russia has not seen anything like these nationwide protests before,” said Boris Kagarlitsky from Moscow’s Globalization Institute.

The Duma is widening the treason law to catch most forms of political dissent, and unwelcome forms of journalism. Jury trials for state crimes are to be abolished.

Yevgeny Kiseloyov at the Moscow Times said it feels eerily like December 1 1934 when Stalin unveiled his “Enemies of the People” law, kicking off the Great Terror.

The omens are not good in China either. Taxis are being bugged by state police. The great unknown is how Beijing will respond as its state-directed export strategy hits a brick wall, leaving exposed a vast eyesore of concrete and excess plant.

Exports fell 2.2pc in November. Toy, textile, footwear, and furniture plants are being closed across Guangdong, now the riot hub of South China. Some 40m Chinese workers are expected to lose their jobs. Party officials have warned of “mass-scale social turmoil”.

The Politburo is giving mixed signals. We don’t yet know how much of the country’s plan to boost domestic demand through a $586bn stimulus package is real, and how much is a wish-list sent to party bosses in the hinterland without funding.

Shortly after President Hu Jintao said China is “losing competitive edge in the world market”, we saw a move towards export subsidies for the steel industry and a dip in the yuan peg - even though China already has the world’s biggest reserves ($2 trillion) and the biggest trade surplus ($40bn a month).

So is the Communist Party mulling a 1930s “beggar-thy-neighbour” strategy of devaluation to export its way out of trouble? Such raw mercantilism can only draw a sharp retort from Washington and Brussels in this climate.

“During a global slowdown, you can’t have countries trying to take advantage of others by manipulating their currencies,” said Frank Vargo from the US National Association of Manufacturers.

It is a view shared entirely by President-elect Barack Obama. “China must change its currency practices. Because it pegs its currency at an artificially low rate, China is running massive current account surpluses. This is not good for American firms and workers, not good for the world,” he said in October. The new intake of radical Democrats on Capitol Hill will hold him to it.

There has been much talk lately of America’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which set off the protectionist dominoes in 1930. It is usually invoked by free traders to make the wrong point. The relevant message of Smoot-Hawley is that America was then the big exporter, playing the China role. By resorting to tariffs, it set off retaliation, and was the biggest victim of its own folly.

Britain and the Dominions retreated into Imperial Preference. Other countries joined. This became the “growth bloc” of the 1930s, free from the deflation constraints of the Gold Standard. High tariffs stopped the stimulus leaking out.

It was a successful strategy - given the awful alternatives - and was the key reason why Britain’s economy contracted by just 5pc during the Depression, against 15pc for France, and 30pc for the US.

Could we see such a closed “growth bloc” emerging now, this time led by the US, entailing a massive rupture of world’s trading system? Perhaps.

This crisis has already brought us a monetary revolution as interest rates approach zero across the G10. It may overturn the “New World Order” as well, unless we move with great care in grim months ahead. This is where events turn dangerous.

The last great era of globalisation peaked just before 1914. You know the rest of the story.

Technorati Tags: riots, insurrection

Source: Phoenix Business Journal

A new report by the U.S. Army War College talks about the possibility of Pentagon resources and troops being used should the economic crisis lead to civil unrest, such as protests against businesses and government or runs on beleaguered banks.

“Widespread civil violence inside the United States would force the defense establishment to reorient priorities in extremis to defend basic domestic order and human security,” said the War College report.

The study says economic collapse, terrorism and loss of legal order are among possible domestic shocks that might require military action within the U.S.

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn warned Wednesday of economy-related riots and unrest in various global markets if the financial crisis is not addressed and lower-income households are hurt by credit constraints and rising unemployment.

U.S. Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., and U.S. Rep. Brad Sherman, D-Calif., both said U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson brought up a worst-case scenario as he pushed for the Wall Street bailout in September. Paulson, former Goldman Sachs CEO, said that might even require a declaration of martial law, the two noted.

State and local police in Arizona say they have broad plans to deal with social unrest, including trouble resulting from economic distress. The security and police agencies declined to give specifics, but said they would employ existing and generalized emergency responses to civil unrest that arises for any reason.

“The Phoenix Police Department is not expecting any civil unrest at this time, but we always train to prepare for any civil unrest issue. We have a Tactical Response Unit that trains continually and has deployed on many occasions for any potential civil unrest issue,” said Phoenix Police spokesman Andy Hill.

“We have well established plans in place for such civil unrest,” said Scottsdale Police spokesman Mark Clark.

Clark, Hill and other local police officials said the region did plenty of planning and emergency management training for the Super Bowl in February in Glendale.

“We’re prepared,” said Maricopa County Sheriff Deputy Chief Dave Trombi citing his office’s past dealings with immigration marches and major events.

Super Bowl security efforts included personnel and resources from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and U.S. military’s Northern Command, which coordinated with Arizona officials. The Northern Command was created after 9/11 to have troops and Defense Department resources ready to respond to security problems, terrorism and natural disasters.

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Technorati Tags: civil unrest, riots, martial law

Source: monstersandcritics.com

What began Monday as a celebration of Iceland’s 90th birthday since its independence from Denmark in 1918 turned into protests by several hundred people who stormed to the central bank in anger over the government’s handling of the financial crisis.

The protests were a continuation of demonstrations over the weekend that drew several thousand people despite freezing conditions.

Monday’s protestors pushed into the Central Bank foyer, loudly demanding the resignation of Central Bank chief David Oddsson. Over the weekend, angry Icelanders demanded that Prime Minister Geir Haarde step down. Similar calls for the two men to step down have punctuated recent weeks.

The two men are being held accountable for the financial breakdown, bank collapses and accumulation of huge debt in the country of 320,000 on the island nation in the icy North Atlantic. The crisis followed on the US financial crisis that started unravelling in earnest in mid September.

The Icelandic krone has lost three-quarters of its value over 12 months. The government has only been able to ward off bankruptcy through credits from the International Monetary Fund and other governments.

Iceland is in for a tough year in 2009 as the economy is expected to shrink by 10 per cent, unemployment to quadruple, and inflation to hit 20 per cent.

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Technorati Tags: Iceland

Perhaps a glimpse of things to come…

Source: inthenews.co.uk

Protesters in Iceland have clashed with police during a demonstration against the country’s economic woes.

Over the past year Iceland’s currency, the Krona, has fallen by 50 per cent as the Scandinavian country nationalised its three biggest banks to prevent their collapse.

It has also received emergency loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and its neighbours to help it deal with the financial turmoil.

Hundreds of protesters gathered outside parliament on Saturday demanding government resignations over the worsening economic climate.

A small group then broke off and headed towards the city’s main police station to call for the release of a man who had been detained after failing to pay a fine over previous protests.

Police used pepper spray as the group tried to storm the building and managed to bring the crowd under control. The detained man was later released.

Iceland was the first country to seek financial assistance from the IMF as the turmoil in the credit markets in October made trading conditions difficult for the country’s biggest financial institutions.

The UK government used anti-terror legislation to freeze money deposited by UK savers in Icelandic banks in order to ensure that their money was protected.

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Source: Bloomberg.com: Worldwide

Worst Since WWII

The International Monetary Fund predicts advanced economies including the U.S. and 15-nation euro area will contract simultaneously next year for the first time since World War II, with Germany’s forecast to shrink 0.8 percent.

The economy fell into the worst recession in at least 12 years in the third quarter and the country’s benchmark DAX index has tumbled almost 50 percent this year. In the euro region, manufacturing and service industries contracted at the fastest pace in at least a decade this month.

“Europe is Germany’s biggest export market, so if those economies tank we’re in real trouble,” said Andreas Scheuerle, an economist at Dekabank in Frankfurt.

“I believe hardly anyone has ever before seen such a slump in demand,” BASF Chief Executive Officer Juergen Hambrecht told Bloomberg Television on Nov. 19. “We’re bracing for a somewhat tougher year in 2009.”

BASF lowered its profit forecast for a second time and said it will halt or curtail production at plants in Germany, Belgium, the U.S. and China, forcing about 20,000 employees, or one-fifth of its workforce, to work shorter hours and take unused vacation.

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Technorati Tags: German Business Confidence

Source: Telegraph.co.uk

The International Monetary Fund may soon lack the money to bail out an ever growing list of countries crumbling across Eastern Europe, Latin America, Africa, and parts of Asia, raising concerns that it will have to tap taxpayers in Western countries for a capital infusion or resort to the nuclear option of printing its own money.

The Fund is already close to committing a quarter of its $200bn (£130bn) reserve chest, with a loans to Iceland ($2bn), Ukraine ($16.5bn), and talks underway with Pakistan ($14.5bn), Hungary ($10bn), as well as Belarus and Serbia.

Neil Schering, emerging market strategist at Capital Economics, said the IMF’s work in the great arc of countries from the Baltic states to Turkey is only just beginning.

“When you tot up the countries across the region with external funding needs, you get to $500bn or $600bn very quickly, and that blows the IMF out of the water. The Fund may soon have to start calling on the West for additional funds,” he said.

Brad Setser, an expert on capital flows at the Council for Foreign Relations, said Russia, Mexico, Brazil and India have together spent $75bn of their reserves defending their currencies this month, and South Korea is grappling with a serious banking crisis.

“Right now the IMF is too small to meet the foreign currency liquidity needs of the larger emerging economies. We’re in a dangerous situation and there is the risk of extreme moves in the markets, as we have seen with the Brazilian real. I hope policy-makers understand how serious this is,” he said.

The IMF, led by Dominique Strauss-Kahn, has the power to raise money on the capital markets by issuing `AAA’ bonds under its own name. It has never resorted to this option, preferring to tap members states for deposits.

The nuclear option is to print money by issuing Special Drawing Rights, in effect acting as if it were the world’s central bank. This was done briefly after the fall of the Soviet Union but has never been used as systematic tool of policy to head off a global financial crisis.

“The IMF can in theory create liquidity like a central bank,” said an informed source. “There are a lot of ideas kicking around.”

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Technorati Tags: International Monetary Fund