The Greek economy is set to shrink by more than expected this year, the government said on Wednesday, as it braced for nationwide strikes protesting its plans for bringing the country’s budget deficit under control.

Greece, grappling with a ballooning deficit and a 300 billion euro (272 billion pound) debt pile, told the European Union that 2010 gross domestic product (GDP) would “most likely” shrink by more than the 0.3 percent currently forecast.

It also said the drop may exceed an alternative, more pessimistic, scenario published in Greece’s Stability and Growth Programme in January envisaging a 0.8 percent contraction.

Economists and ratings agencies have warned that a sharper than expected slowdown in the economy is one of the biggest threats to Greece’s commitment to cut its budget deficit to 2.8 percent of GDP by 2012 from close to 13 percent last year.

Source/Full Story: Reuters

In surprise news which sent the pound sliding on Thursday, official figures showed that the Government borrowed £4.3 billion last month.

It was the first time since 1993 that the public finances had gone into the red in January – a month in which tax revenues usually push the Exchequer into the black.

Economists said that the scale of the shortfall in the budget could this year mount to above £180 billion – higher than even the Chancellor’s forecast of a record £178 billion.

Such a deficit would, at 12.8 per cent of British gross domestic product, be even greater than the deficit faced in Greece, which is facing a full-scale fiscal crisis and may need to be bailed out by fellow euro nations or the International Monetary Fund.

The public borrowing figures coincided with further bad news from the housing market, as the Council of Mortgage Lenders reported that mortgage lending dropped last month by 32 per cent, hitting the lowest monthly total in a decade.

The Bank of England also reported a decline in lending to businesses, indicating that the economic slowdown is far from over.

Source/Full Story: Telegraph

Moody’s Investors Service fired off a warning on Wednesday that the triple A sovereign credit rating of the US would come under pressure unless economic growth was more robust than expected or tougher actions were taken to tackle the country’s budget deficit.

In a move that follows intensifying concern among investors over the US deficit, Moody’s said the country faced a trajectory of debt growth that was “clearly continuously upward”.

Steven Hess, senior credit officer at Moody’s, said the deficits projected in the budget outlook presented by the Obama administration outlook this week did not stabilise debt levels in relation to gross domestic product.

“Unless further measures are taken to reduce the budget deficit further or the economy rebounds more vigorously than expected, the federal financial picture as presented in the projections for the next decade will at some point put pressure on the triple A government bond rating,” the rating agency added in an issuer note.

Source/Full Story: FT.com

As President Obama prepares to unveil his $3.8 trillion budget for fiscal year 2011, which begins Oct. 1, the White House is projecting the current fiscal year will end with a $1.6 trillion deficit, congressional sources confirmed to Fox News.

Next year’s budget will have a nearly $1.3 trillion debt, according to those sources, dropping to just over half that — $700 billion in fiscal year 2013 — before jumping back up to $1 trillion in 2020, the furthest out that budgeters will predict.

A $1.6 trillion deficit would represent more than 10 percent of the gross domestic product, but the White House says over the next 10 years, the average deficit will represent only 4.5 percent of GDP annually. Last year’s deficit was $1.42 trillion.

Source/Full Story: FOXNews.com

For all the cash provided by the European Central Bank to ease the worst seizure in credit markets since World War II, financial institutions in the region are unwilling to lend, using the money instead to invest in the safest, most liquid government securities. Bond investors are offering money like never before as returns on corporate debt reach as much as 70 percent this year, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. indexes.

The result is corporate bond sales in Europe are exceeding the amount raised through bank loans for the first time, with issuance by non-financial companies doubling to a record 337 billion euros this year. Syndicated loans, or debt underwritten by a group of banks which they then sell to investors, fell 46 percent to 279 billion euros, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

European banks, which have lost or written down $561 billion in the credit freeze, are awash with cash after governments approved $5.3 trillion of aid, more than the annual gross domestic product of Germany, European Union data show.

Source/Full Story: Bloomberg.com

The federal government kicked off fiscal year 2010 by posting its widest-ever October budget deficit, the Treasury Department said Thursday.

The $176.36 billion gap is more than $20 billion wider than the shortfall recorded in October 2008, driven up by lower tax receipts, stimulus-related revenue reductions and consistently high government outlays.

Treasury’s monthly budget statement shows receipts were $135.33 billion in October, down 18% from a year earlier and at the lowest level since October 2002. Meanwhile, outlays were $311.69 billion, down 3% from a year earlier and at their second-highest monthly level on record.

The October deficit figure is wider than the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate for a $175 billion deficit in the month and wider than the $165.9 billion expected by analysts surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires.

The Treasury on Thursday also revised September’s deficit to a slightly narrower $46.57 billion, from a previously reported $46.61 billion. Even with the revision, the U.S. in fiscal year 2009 posted a record total budget deficit of near $1.4 trillion — three times its previous record.

At the equivalent of 9.9% of gross domestic product, the figure is the widest U.S. deficit as a share of GDP since 1945.

Source/Full Story:: WSJ.com

…
The government will release figures this week expected to show that the economy has awakened from its deepest slump since the 1930s and is in the early stages of a recovery. But the following week, the government will issue another set of figures expected to show unemployment continuing to rise toward and possibly above a clearly recessionary 10 percent.

How can both be possible?

The government releases third-quarter Gross Domestic Product figures on Thursday. Many forecasters say they will show GDP growing at an annual rate of about 3 percent, validating a widely held belief among economists that the recession ended in June or July.

But try telling that to the more than 15 million still unemployed, the small businesses and individuals who can’t get loans and the people whose homes are worth less than their mortgages.

Assertions by government and private economists that the recession is over — issued amid graphic examples of continuing wide distress — are raising fresh questions about economic scorekeeping.

Source/Full Story:  Yahoo! News

The British economy is in its longest recession on record, as figures out this morning showed a shock 0.4% drop in gross domestic product (GDP) in the third quarter of the year.
…
TUC general secretary Brendan Barber said he hoped today’s figures would “head off the growing signs of complacency” on an economy which remains “extremely fragile”.

“Even if we had achieved a technical recovery today, it would not feel like a recovery to the thousands losing their jobs or afraid that they will join the dole queue in the months ahead when unemployment will continue rising. It takes more than a statistical read out and the return of big bank bonuses for a real recovery,” he said.

Philip Shaw, chief economist at Investec bank, said: “We thought there was a chance that the economy could contract, but not by this much … the numbers do come as a big shock.”

Peter Dixon, economist at Commerzbank in London said the figures made it more likely the Bank of England would next month extend its policy of flooding the economy with money, known as “quantitative easing”.

Source/Full Story: guardian.co.uk

China’s economy expanded at the fastest pace in a year as stimulus spending and record lending growth helped the nation lead the world out of recession.

Gross domestic product rose 8.9 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier, the statistics bureau said in Beijing today. The median of 34 estimates in a Bloomberg News survey was for a 9 percent gain. Separate reports showed industrial production and retail sales accelerated in September.

The dollar headed higher and Asian stocks dropped on concern that the acceleration in China’s growth will spur policy makers to consider withdrawing record fiscal and monetary stimulus in coming quarters. Qin Xiao, chairman of China Merchants Bank Co., this week said it’s “urgent” for the central bank to tighten policy to avert asset-price bubbles.

“It’s all a question now of making sure they don’t overdo the stimulus,” said Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Plc. “The probability of stronger guidance to banks on lending growth is rising.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific stock index slid 0.5 percent to 120.56 as of 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong. China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was little changed after losing as much as 0.8 percent earlier today. The dollar benefited from its status as a haven, advancing 0.2 percent to 91.17 yen and $1.4986 per euro. The yuan was little changed, trading at 6.8270.

Source/Full Story: Bloomberg.com

Full story at:  Capitalism Magazine

In a presentation to the National Press Foundation, January 17, 2008, Mr. Walker brought forth the following facts and projections:

1. From 1966 to 2006, the percentage of federal funds spent on Medicare rose from 1% to 19%. This trend will grow exponentially as millions of “baby boomers” enter the entitlement pool.

2. For the same period, spending for mandated government commitments rose from 26% to 53% of the total budget. The budget is increasingly out of the control of government officials.

3. As of 2007, Medicare is running in arrears. In 2017 Social Security will be in deficit. By the year 2040, Medicare and Social Security alone will be running annual deficits of nearly 900 billion dollars.

4. Medicare spending from now until 2032 will be 235% of economic growth. By 2040, Medicare will be spending about 10% of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product annually, and the annual deficits of the United States will total some 20% of the total Gross Domestic Product. 

The bottom line is this: mandated fiscal entitlements, projected into the future, are over 52,000 billion dollars. That will equal 90% of all household wealth in the U.S., and will place a burden of over 450 thousand dollars on every household in the land. This is almost ten times the present median household income level.

Mr. Walker concludes that “We face large and growing structural deficits largely due to known demographic trends and rising health care costs.” Further, “GAO’s simulations show that balancing the budget in 2040 could require actions as large as cutting total federal spending by 60 percent, or raising federal taxes to two times today’s level.”

Source/Full Story: Capitalism Magazine

Economic output shrank by 5.6pc in the 12 months to the middle of the year, according to official figures which shattered hopes that the recovery has already begun.

The Office for National Statistics said that Britain’s gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.8pc in the second quarter, following the unprecedented 2.4pc fall in the first three months of the year. Economists had expected GDP – the broadest measure of the country’s economic performance – to shrink by 0.3pc.

According to calculations by Martin Weale of the National Institute for Economic and Social Research the profile of the current recession is now almost identical to the decline in Britain’s output between 1929 and 1931. The 5.6pc contraction over the past year almost matches the 5.8pc fall in the year preceding the second quarter of 1931, during which Credit Anstalt in Austria collapsed, triggering a second wave of economic seizure across Europe.

Source/Full Story:: Telegraph
Technorati Tags: Great Depression

Two of America’s biggest banks, Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo, on Wednesday threw into sharp relief the mounting woes of the US commercial property market when they reported large losses and surging bad loans.

The disappointing second-quarter results for two of the largest lenders and investors in office, retail and industrial property across the US confirmed investors’ fears that commercial real estate would be the next front in the financial crisis after the collapse of the housing market.

The failing health of the $6,700bn commercial property market, which accounts for more than 10 per cent of US gross domestic product, could be a significant hurdle on the road to recovery.

Source/Full Story:: FT.com
Technorati Tags: Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, commercial property market

As the Obama administration wrestles with how to pay for a costly revamp of the health care system and whether to spend more to spark a nearly lifeless economy, it faces shrinking fiscal room to maneuver. With each passing day, the outlook for the government’s finances grows dimmer.

Skyrocketing federal budget deficits increasingly are limiting the government’s ability to take on new financial commitments. Investors also are starting to worry about something once unthinkable: that the U.S. government could default on its debts someday.

The federal budget deficit is the annual sum of what government spends beyond what it collects in revenues. This year’s deficit is on course to balloon to a figure equivalent to 12 percent of the nation’s gross domestic product, the total annual value of all goods and services produced. That’s double the peak Reagan-era deficit, which was the post-World War II high until now.

A June study by the Brookings Institution, a center-left policy research group, found that current increases in spending and continuation of most George W. Bush-era tax cuts will combine to produce a 10-year deficit of $9.1 trillion. That will drive interest payments on the national debt — the total of accumulated annual deficits — to about 3.8 percent of the GDP by 2019.

Interest payments on the debt that high would surpass defense spending as a percentage of the GDP. Taxpayers would get nothing in return. All that spending on interest would go only to holders of government bonds who’d financed the past deficit spending.

“All of these figures are poised to rise further after 2019, implying that the situation is unsustainable,” wrote researchers William Gale and Alan Auerbach, the Brookings authors.

Source/Full Story: McClatchy

Right…..

The United States should be planning for a possible second round of fiscal stimulus to further prop up the economy after the $787 billion rescue package launched in February, an adviser to President Barack Obama said.

“We should be planning on a contingency basis for a second round of stimulus,” Laura D’Andrea Tyson, a member of the panel advising President Barack Obama on tackling the economic crisis. said on Tuesday.

Addressing a seminar in Singapore, Tyson said she felt the first round of stimulus aimed to prop up the economy had been slightly smaller than she would have liked and that a possible second round should be directed at infrastructure investment.

“The stimulus is performing close to expectations but not in timing,” Tyson said, referring to the slow pace at which the first round of stimulus had been spent on the economy.

Tyson, who is a dean of the Haas School of Business at University of California, Berkeley and was also a White House economic adviser to former President Bill Clinton, said an additional factor affecting the stimulus was that the economy was in a far worse shape than the administration had estimated.

INFLATION NOT A CONCERN

Tyson dispelled concerns about the ballooning U.S. fiscal deficit that is estimated to hit nearly 10 percent of gross domestic product, and its possible inflationary consequences.

“The Federal Reserve is not going to allow the U.S. to inflate away its debt,” she said.

Source/Full Story: Reuters

Europe’s economy contracted at the fastest pace in at least 13 years in the first quarter as companies cut output and jobs to survive the worst global slump in more than six decades.

Gross domestic product in the 16-member euro region dropped 2.5 percent from the fourth quarter, when it fell 1.6 percent, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the biggest drop since the euro-area GDP data were first compiled in 1995 and exceeded the 2 percent decline economists expected in a Bloomberg News survey. Inflation held at 0.6 percent in April, a separate report showed.

The deepest global recession since World War II is curbing European exports and eroding consumer demand, forcing companies to cut spending and jobs. The German and Italian economies also contracted by the most on record in the first quarter. Hong Kong’s economy shrank at the fastest pace since at least 1990, prompting the government to forecast a full-year contraction of as much as 6.5 percent.

“The first quarter will hopefully remain the weakest overall,” said Christoph Weil, an economist at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. “The economy may continue to shrink through the third before we see some kind of stabilization.”

From a year earlier, the euro-area economy shrank 4.6 percent, also the biggest drop on record, today’s report showed. The statistics office is scheduled to publish a breakdown of first-quarter GDP on June 3. The European Commission on May 4 cut its outlook to project a contraction of 4 percent this year and 0.1 percent in 2010.

Source/Full Story: Bloomberg.com