G.O.O.D

Source: Bloomberg.com

Federal Reserve policy makers saw “substantial” risks to the slumping economy last month as they cut the benchmark interest rate to a record low and pledged to expand emergency loans if necessary.

Central bank officials believed “the economic outlook would remain weak for a time and the downside risks to economic activity would be substantial,” according to the minutes of the Dec. 15-16 Federal Open Market Committee meeting released today in Washington. The FOMC discussed setting an inflation target to discourage expectations that price increases will slow “below desired levels.”

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“The current downturn is likely to be far longer and deeper than the ‘garden-variety’ recession,” Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Janet Yellen said in a Jan. 4 speech. “It’s worth pulling out all the stops” in a fiscal stimulus.

U.S. employment fell by 500,000 jobs in December, bringing last year’s decline to 2.4 million, the most since 1945, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Labor Department figures due Jan. 9.

Some Fed policy makers said last month that “during the period of financial turmoil” the central bank’s “balance sheet would need to be maintained at a high level,” according to the minutes. Some officials saw “the distinct possibility of a prolonged contraction” stemming partly from stresses in financial markets.

The FOMC discussed setting a target for growth in the Fed’s balance sheet as a guide to policy, the minutes said. While a “few” policy makers favored a numerical goal, most favored “close cooperation and consultation” with the Fed board.

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Technorati Tags: Federal Reserve, Federal Open Market Committee

Source: FT.com

The worst annual performance for Wall Street stocks since the Great Depression ended with a modest rally on the final day of trading as the Federal Reserve pushed ahead with its plan to buy mortgage-backed securities.

The central bank’s plan to buy up to $500bn of mortgage bonds by the middle of 2009 helped spur a 1.4 per cent gain on the day for the S&P, which finished 2008 at 903.25.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average and Nasdaq Composite Index added 1.3 per cent to 8,776.39 and 1.7 per cent to 1,577.03, respectively. Volumes were thin as many traders remained away from their desks ahead of the New Year holiday.

For the year, the S&P 500 dropped 38.5 per cent, marking its worst run since a marginally higher drop of 38.6 per cent in 1937. The Dow lost 33.8 per cent, its worst annual decline since the index fell 52.7 per cent in 1931.

“It was beyond most people’s comprehension that such a thing could happen,” said Marc Pado, chief market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald. “No one thought the short-term could be this destructive.”

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Technorati Tags: stock market, Great Depression

Source: Bloomberg.com

The Federal Reserve may today reduce its main interest rate to the lowest level on record and prepare for one of the boldest experiments in its 94-year history: using its balance sheet as the key tool for monetary policy.

The Fed’s Open Market Committee will probably cut the benchmark rate in half, to 0.5 percent, according to the median of 84 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. The central bank may also signal plans to channel credit to businesses and consumers by further enlarging its $2.26 trillion of assets.

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke plans new steps to combat the credit crunch and prevent the worst recession in a quarter century from turning into a depression. The danger is the Fed’s credibility could be hurt if policy makers don’t clearly communicate a new strategy of manipulating the supply of money, at a time when FOMC members have diverging views on the subject.

“We expect the FOMC to leave the policy outlook open- ended,” said Louis Crandall, chief economist at Wrightson ICAP LLC, the world’s largest broker of trades between banks, in Jersey City, New Jersey. “The FOMC may have no choice but to muddle along for a while longer” because “there is no sign that a consensus on a new approach has begun to emerge,” he said.

Investor speculation that the Fed will ease monetary policy today pushed yields on 10-year Treasury notes to the lowest since 1954. The dollar traded near a two-month low against the euro and was close to its weakest level in 13 years versus the yen.

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Technorati Tags: Federal Reserve, FOMC

Source: Bloomberg.com

The Federal Reserve refused a request by Bloomberg News to disclose the recipients of more than $2 trillion of emergency loans from U.S. taxpayers and the assets the central bank is accepting as collateral.

Bloomberg filed suit Nov. 7 under the U.S. Freedom of Information Act requesting details about the terms of 11 Fed lending programs, most created during the deepest financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The Fed responded Dec. 8, saying it’s allowed to withhold internal memos as well as information about trade secrets and commercial information. The institution confirmed that a records search found 231 pages of documents pertaining to some of the requests.

“If they told us what they held, we would know the potential losses that the government may take and that’s what they don’t want us to know,” said Carlos Mendez, a senior managing director at New York-based ICP Capital LLC, which oversees $22 billion in assets.

The Fed stepped into a rescue role that was the original purpose of the Treasury’s $700 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program. The central bank loans don’t have the oversight safeguards that Congress imposed upon the TARP.

Total Fed lending exceeded $2 trillion for the first time Nov. 6. It rose by 138 percent, or $1.23 trillion, in the 12 weeks since Sept. 14, when central bank governors relaxed collateral standards to accept securities that weren’t rated AAA.

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Technorati Tags: Federal Reserve, TARP

Source: Bloomberg.com

Treasuries rose, pushing rates on the three-month bill negative for the first time, as investors gravitate toward the safety of U.S. government debt amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The Treasury sold $27 billion of three-month bills yesterday at a discount rate of 0.005 percent, the lowest since it starting auctioning the securities in 1929. The U.S. also sold $30 billion of four-week bills today at zero percent for the first time since it began selling the debt in 2001.

“It’s the year-end factor,” said Chris Ahrens, an interest-rate strategist in Greenwich, Connecticut, at UBS Securities LLC, one of the 17 primary dealers that trade directly with the Federal Reserve. “Everyone wants to be in bills going into year-end. Buy now while the opportunity is still there.”

The benchmark 10-year note’s yield tumbled 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 2.63 percent at 4:48 p.m. in New York, according to BGCantor Market Data. The 3.75 percent security due in November 2018 gained 31/32, or $9.69 per $1,000 face amount, to 109 23/32. The yield touched 2.505 percent on Dec. 5, the lowest level since at least 1962, when the Fed’s daily records began.

The two-year note’s yield fell 10 basis points to 0.84 percent. It dropped to a record low of 0.77 percent on Dec. 5.

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Technorati Tags: Treasuries

Jean-Claude Trichet

Source: Bloomberg.com: Germany

European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the euro region’s economy will shrink next year for the first time since 2003 after the bank delivered the biggest interest rate cut in its 10-year history.

“Global and euro-area demand are likely to be dampened for a protracted period of time,” Trichet said at a press conference in Brussels today. The ECB lowered its benchmark by three quarters of a percentage point to 2.5 percent.

The ECB’s decision came after the Bank of England today cut its key rate by one percentage point to 2 percent and Sweden’s central bank lowered borrowing costs by the most since 1992. The Federal Reserve’s benchmark rate now matches a five-decade low as central banks rush to respond to the global recession.

“The level of uncertainty remains exceptionally high,” Trichet said. The euro was little changed after his comments and traded at $1.2634 at 3:16 p.m. in Brussels.

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Technorati Tags: European Central Bank