War & Rumors of War

The language was already biblical; now the scale of what is happening matches it. The exodus of people forced from their homes in Pakistan’s Swat Valley and elsewhere in the country’s north-west may be as high as 2.4 million, aid officials say. Around the world, only a handful of war-spoiled countries – Sudan, Iraq, Colombia – have larger numbers of internal refugees. The speed of the displacement at its height – up to 85,000 people a day – was matched only during the 1994 genocide in Rwanda. This is now one of the biggest sudden refugee crises the world has ever seen.

Until now, the worst of the problem has been kept largely out of sight. Of the total displaced by the military’s operations against the Taliban – the army yesterday claimed a crucial breakthrough, taking control of the Swat Valley’s main town, Mingora – just 200,000 people have been forced to live in the makeshift tent camps dotted around the southern fringe of the conflict zone. The vast majority were taken in by relatives, extended family members and local people wanting to help.

But this grassroots sense of charity is slowly starting to show real strain. In a week when the relentless danger of the militants was underlined by a massive car bomb in the city of Lahore that killed at least 30 people and injured hundreds more, aid groups have warned that the communities taking people in – already some of the planet’s poorest people – could themselves be displaced as they desperately sell their few assets to help the homeless.

Source/Full Story: The Independent

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New survey of Arctic’s mineral riches could stoke international strife

The battle for the Arctic’s hidden mineral riches is likely to intensify after a survey revealing the energy reserves present beneath the ice.

A map of potential oil and gas reserves in the region, published today in Science, shows that about 30% of the world’s ­un­exploited gas and 13% of oil lie under the seas around the north pole. Billions of barrels of oil and trillions of cubic feet of gas lie within the Arctic ­circle, where, until now, permanent ice has prevented drilling.

The report is likely to further stoke international competition for mineral, tourism and shipping rights in the region. Exploration and drilling for oil and gas have become easier as climate change forces the ice to retreat, and all countries with borders inside the Arctic circle are fighting to claim their share. “For better or worse, limited ­exploration prospects in the rest of the world ­combined with technological advances make the Arctic increasingly attractive for ­development,” said Paul Berkman of the Scott polar research institute at the University of Cambridge, who specialises in the politics of the Arctic.

Russia filed its claim with the UN in 2001 but it is being contested by Canada, ­Denmark, Norway and the US. In 2007, Russian sailors used a submarine to plant a flag on the sea bed beneath the north pole in an area also claimed by Denmark, thanks to its sovereignty of Greenland. Earlier this month, Russia said it would be prepared to use military force to protect its claims in the Arctic.

Source/Full Story: New survey of Arctic’s mineral riches could stoke international strife | Environment | The Guardian

Assessment of Undiscovered Oil and Gas in the Arctic

Among the greatest uncertainties in future energy supply and a subject of considerable environmental concern is the amount of oil and gas yet to be found in the Arctic. By using a probabilistic geology-based methodology, the United States Geological Survey has assessed the area north of the Arctic Circle and concluded that about 30% of the world’s undiscovered gas and 13% of the world’s undiscovered oil may be found there, mostly offshore under less than 500 meters of water. Undiscovered natural gas is three times more abundant than oil in the Arctic and is largely concentrated in Russia. Oil resources, although important to the interests of Arctic countries, are probably not sufficient to substantially shift the current geographic pattern of world oil production.     Read the Full Text

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan could cause one billion people to starve to death around the world, and hundreds of millions more to die from disease and conflicts over food.

That is the horrifying scenario being presented in London today by a US medical expert, Ira Helfand. A conference at the Royal Society of Medicine will also hear new evidence of the severe damage that such a war could inflict on the ozone layer.

“A limited nuclear war taking place far away poses a threat that should concern everyone on the planet,” Helfand told New Scientist. This was not scare mongering, he adds: “It is appropriate, given the data, to be frightened.”

Helfand is an emergency-room doctor in Northampton, Massachusetts, US, and a co-founder of the US anti-nuclear group, Physicians for Social Responsibility. In his study he attempted to map out the global consequences of India and Pakistan exploding 100 Hiroshima-sized nuclear warheads.

Source/Full Story::  New Scientist

The U.S. Border Patrol plans to poison the plant life along a 1.1-mile stretch of the Rio Grande riverbank as soon as Wednesday to get rid of the hiding places used by smugglers, robbers and illegal immigrants.

If successful, the $2.1 million pilot project could later be duplicated along as many as 130 miles of river in the patrol’s Laredo Sector, as well as other parts of the U.S.-Mexico border.

Although Border Patrol and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency officials say the chemical is safe for animals, detractors say the experiment is reminiscent of the Vietnam War-era Agent Orange chemical program and raises questions about long-term effects.

“We don’t believe that is even moral,” said Jay Johnson-Castro Sr., executive director of the Rio Grande International Study Center, located at Laredo Community College, adjacent to the planned test area.

“It is unprecedented that they’d do it in a populated area,” he said of spraying the edge of the Rio Grande as it weaves between the cities of Laredo and Nuevo Laredo, Mexico.

Border Patrol agent Roque Sarinana said the pilot project aims to find the most efficient way to keep agents safer and better protect the nation’s border. “We are trying to improve our mobility and visibility up and down the river,” Sarinana said.

Criminals have grown adept at using the dense foliage to elude capture, he said.

“They can come over almost undetected,” he said.

Source: t r u t h o u t

A “perfect storm” of food shortages, scarce water and insufficient energy resources threaten to unleash public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migration as people flee from the worst-affected regions, the UK government’s chief scientist will warn tomorrow.

In a major speech to environmental groups and politicians, Professor John Beddington, who took up the position of chief scientific adviser last year, will say that the world is heading for major upheavals which are due to come to a head in 2030.

He will tell the government’s Sustainable Development UK conference in Westminster that the growing population and success in alleviating poverty in developing countries will trigger a surge in demand for food, water and energy over the next two decades, at a time when governments must also make major progress in combating climate change.

“We head into a perfect storm in 2030, because all of these things are operating on the same time frame,” Beddington told the Guardian.

“If we don’t address this, we can expect major destabilisation, an increase in rioting and potentially significant problems with international migration, as people move out to avoid food and water shortages,” he added.

Food prices for major crops such as wheat and maize have recently settled after a sharp rise last year when production failed to keep up with demand. But according to Beddington, global food reserves are so low – at 14% of annual consumption – a major drought or flood could see prices rapidly escalate again. The majority of the food reserve is grain that is in transit between shipping ports, he said.

Source: guardian

The U.S. government is working on an integrated plan to address Mexico’s escalating war with drug traffickers and could complete work on the initiative as early as this week, a top U.S. military official said on Tuesday.

Air Force Gen. Gene Renuart, who oversees U.S. military interests on both sides of the U.S.-Mexican border as the head of Northern Command, told the Senate that the plan would likely involve all agencies of government including law enforcement and the military.

Among the priorities are likely to be measures to deal with violence that spills over the U.S. border, the flow of small arms from the United States to Mexico, support for the Mexican military, tightening border security and the spreading presence of Mexican cartels in U.S. cities.

The military is already employing border security techniques mastered in the war zones of Iraq and Afghanistan, including unmanned aerial vehicles and technology capable of locating underground tunnels.

But an interagency government team, meeting this week at the Department of Homeland Security, is expected to produce a broad new initiative to confront a drug war that has killed thousands in Mexico and spilled over into U.S. cities such as Phoenix in a surge of kidnappings and other gang-related violence.

“This is a whole of government problem and I think the best response is an integrated approach and we’re working toward that aggressively,” Renuart said at a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee.

“I think we’ll have good plans come out of this work this week,” he said.

DHS spokesman Sean Smith said Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano would soon make an announcement on new initiatives that the department would undertake, some with “other agencies.”

Source: Newsmax

Also, here’s the link to theWorldNetDaily piece by Chuck Norris.

Source: Examiner

The call by some right wing leaders for rebellion and for the military to refuse the commander in chief’s orders is joined by Chuck Norris who claims that thousands of right wing cell groups have organized and are ready for a second American Revolution. During an appearance on the Glen Beck radio show he promised that if things get any worse from his point of view he may “run for president of Texas.” The martial artist/actor/activist claims that Texas was never formally a part of the United States in the first place and that if rebellion is to come through secession Texas would lead the way.

Today in his syndicated column on WorldNetDaily Norris reiterates the point: “That need may be a reality sooner than we think. If not me, someone someday may again be running for president of the Lone Star state, if the state of the union continues to turn into the enemy of the state.”

He continues; calling on a second American Revolution; “…we’ve bastardized the First Amendment, reinterpreted America’s religious history and secularized our society until we ooze skepticism and circumvent religion on every level of public and private life.

How much more will Americans take? When will enough be enough? And, when that time comes, will our leaders finally listen or will history need to record a second American Revolution? We the people have the authority according to America’s Declaration of Independence, which states: That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government…”

Norris claims that; “Thousands of cell groups will be united around the country in solidarity over the concerns for our nation.” The right wing cells will meet during a live telecast, “We Surround Them,” on Friday March 13 at 5 p.m.

He closes with the words of Sam Houston followed by a plug for his next martial arts event.

“We view ourselves on the eve of battle.”

The state and federal governments have prepared contingency plans to deal with spillover violence from across the border as Mexican troops clash with ruthless drug cartels terrorizing Mexico.

“Anything you can think of that’s happened in Mexico, we have to think could happen here,” said Steve McCraw, Gov. Rick Perry’s director of homeland security. “We know what they’re capable of.”

A crackdown by Mexican President Felipe Calderon has turned Ciudad Juarez, just across the border from El Paso, into a war zone as federal troops battle feuding cartels.

Thousands of soldiers and agents have surged into the border city in the government’s latest effort to free Mexican citizens from a daily spectacle of assassinations, kidnappings and beheadings ordered by rival drug czars.

McCraw predicted that the violence in Mexico “will get worse before it gets better.”

Mexico’s active-duty armed forces number more than 130,000 and are being aggressively used to combat the cartels. But U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, told reporters last week that Mexico’s two largest drug cartels have fielded a combined army of 100,000 foot soldiers to battle not just government forces but also one another.

Potential threat

The state’s contingency plan was developed under the umbrella of Operation Border Star, a multiagency law enforcement offensive led by Perry’s homeland security office. The plan, which has not been released publicly, envisions scenarios of violence, such as kidnappings or a takeover by hit squads, with a corresponding response by law enforcement, McCraw said.

While declining to elaborate on specifics for security reasons, McCraw called it a “very aggressive plan to deal very quickly with all threats that might be posed.”

The U.S. Department of Homeland Security has also prepared contingency measures to respond to cross-border violence, agency spokeswoman Amy Kudwa said. Like the state plan, the federal response “contemplates a number of contingencies that could result from violence” in Mexico, Kudwa said.

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, interviewed last week on PBS’ NewsHour with Jim Lehrer, said the grisly murders and kidnappings that are signatures of the Mexican drug wars haven’t made their way north.

“But let’s be very, very clear,” she said. “This is a very serious battle. It could spill over into the United States. If it does, we do have contingency plans to deal with it.”

Source: Star-Telegram.com

Hundreds of heavily armed soldiers fanned out across Mexico’s bloodiest drug war city on Tuesday, trying to prevent a collapse in law and order just south of the U.S. border.

Sirens blared as the army staged one of its biggest troop build-ups in years in Ciudad Juarez, a desert city across the border from El Paso, Texas, where near-daily clashes between drug gangs and police have terrified residents.

Infamous in the 1990s for the unsolved murders of hundreds of women, Ciudad Juarez is now engulfed in the worst drug violence in Mexico as cartels in league with corrupt cops fight over one of the country’s most profitable smuggling routes.

More than 2,000 people have been murdered in the area over the past year and drug gang hitmen showed their power last month by forcing the city’s police chief to resign with a threat to keep killing police officers until he quit.

“We’ve got to show we can achieve security in Juarez, for Mexico’s sake, for its economy, for people’s lives, for our international reputation,” said Victor Valencia, the Chihuahua state governor’s representative in Ciudad Juarez.

Ciudad Juarez is prized for its location smack in the middle of the 2,000 mile border with road and rail links deep into the United States. The Pacific-coast Sinaloa gang, led by top fugitive Joaquin “Shorty” Guzman, is one of several fighting for control of the city.

Mexico’s police forces are tainted up to the highest levels by corruption and direct links to the drug cartels, and President Felipe Calderon has staked his reputation on a nationwide army-led crackdown on cartels.

Ciudad Juarez is now the most crucial battleground of a war that killed more than 6,000 people across Mexico last year and is scaring off investors in cities near the border.

“The solution is with the military. The federal, state and municipal police are infiltrated by organized crime,” Valencia told Reuters.

The army expects to have 7,500 soldiers and federal police stationed in Ciudad Juarez by the end of the week, with a further 2,000 troops in the rest of Chihuahua state. Six local bishops pleaded in newspaper ads this week for an end to the killings that are “staining the state with blood”.

Troops rolled past U.S.-style shopping malls in Ciudad Juarez on Tuesday to set up checkpoints at bridges running over the border and at the city’s international airport, briefly shut last week after bomb threats.

Reuters

Source: Los Angeles Times

By Megan K. Stack
January 17, 2009

Reporting from Moscow — Police used rubber bullets and tear gas to quell demonstrators in the Lithuanian capital Friday, as economic hardship burst into street-level rage in another European country.

With dwindling budgets forcing unpopular spending cuts and tax hikes in many countries, the global financial crisis is steadily emerging as a political threat to governments. Demonstrations have erupted in Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria and Iceland as bread-and-butter anxiety turns into anti-government rage.

In Vilnius, Lithuania’s capital, a peaceful protest against a government austerity plan degenerated into violence as thousands of demonstrators surged toward the parliament building, hurling eggs and rocks. At least 84 people were arrested and at least 14 injured, including four police officers.

Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, who just took office last month, was unflinching.

“We will only speak to those who unequivocally distance themselves from those who have staged riots, who sow chaos and who encroach upon the constitutional system,” Kubilius said in a statement released to news agencies.

“The riot will not scare us,” he said.

Lithuania’s economy is expected to enter a recession this year. The protests were called in response to the government’s attempts to curb the financial crisis, including widely unpopular tax hikes. “Thieves! Thieves!” some protesters shouted at the government Friday.

“The government has long neglected the social needs of the people, pensioners and others,” Algirdas Paleckis, leader of the Frontas radical left party, told Reuters news agency.

Lithuania isn’t the only Baltic state where economic problems are causing unrest. Though the region has been generally peaceful since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, the sudden threat of financial strife is driving ordinary people to unusual angst.

Lithuania’s northern neighbor on the Baltic Sea coast, Latvia, is also churning. The largest party in its ruling coalition on Friday called for early parliamentary elections after a massive demonstration roiled the capital this week.

Once boasting the European Union’s fastest-growing economy, Latvia was forced to seek loans last year from the EU and the International Monetary Fund. The government has dramatically cut social spending.

Festering anger boiled over in Riga, the capital, on Tuesday as a protest demanding early elections led to riots and looting. Youths dug cobblestones from the streets, smashed storefronts and destroyed police vehicles, news agencies reported. More than 100 people were detained in the worst violence to shake Latvia since the country gained its independence in the Soviet collapse.

Protesters also rioted outside Bulgaria’s parliament building this week as citizens of the EU’s poorest country railed against their government.

Even Russia, which was riding high through much of the last year because of lofty prices for its oil and natural gas, has been rattled by financial tension. Police violently stifled demonstrations in recent weeks over a tax hike on imported cars.

Technorati Tags: protests, Lithuania, Latvia, Bulgaria

Source:  El Paso Times

…
The command’s “Joint Operating Environment (JOE 2008)” report, which contains projections of global threats and potential next wars, puts Pakistan on the same level as Mexico. “In terms of worse-case scenarios for the Joint Force and indeed the world, two large and important states bear consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and Mexico.

“The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the government, its politicians, police and judicial infrastructure are all under sustained assault and press by criminal gangs and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over the next several years will have a major impact on the stability of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos would demand an American response based on the serious implications for homeland security alone.”
…

In the foreword, Marine Gen. J.N. Mattis, the USJFC commander, said “Predictions about the future are always risky … Regardless, if we do not try to forecast the future, there is no doubt that we will be caught off guard as we strive to protect this experiment in democracy that we call America.”

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Technorati Tags: Pakistan , Mexico

Literally, the bottom line:  “ The last great era of globalisation peaked just before 1914. You know the rest of the story. “

Source: Telegraph

Greece has been in turmoil for 11 days. The mood seems to have turned “pre-insurrectionary” in parts of Athens – to borrow from the Marxist handbook.

This is a foretaste of what the world may face as the “crisis of capitalism” – another Marxist phase making a comeback – starts to turn two hundred million lives upside down.

We are advancing to the political stage of this global train wreck. Regimes are being tested. Those relying on perma-boom to mask a lack of democratic or ancestral legitimacy may try to gain time by the usual methods: trade barriers, sabre-rattling, and barbed wire.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the head of the International Monetary Fund, is worried enough to ditch a half-century of IMF orthodoxy, calling for a fiscal boost worth 2pc of world GDP to “prevent global depression”.

“If we are not able to do that, then social unrest may happen in many countries, including advanced economies. We are facing an unprecedented decline in output. All around the planet, the people have reacted with feelings going from surprise to anger, and from anger to fear,” he said.

Russia has begun to shut down trade as it adjusts to the shock of Urals oil below $40 a barrel. It has imposed import tariffs of 30pc on cars, 15pc on farm kit, and 95pc on poultry (above quota levels). “It is possible during the financial crisis to support domestic producers by raising customs duties,” said Premier Vladimir Putin.

Russia is not alone. India and Vietnam have imposed steel tariffs. Indonesia is resorting to special “licences” to choke off imports.

The Kremlin is alarmed by a 13pc fall in industrial output over the last five months. There have been street protests in Moscow, St Petersburg, Kaliningrad, Vladivostok and Barnaul. Police crushed “Dissent Marchers” holding copies of Russia’s constitution above their heads in Moscow’s Triumfalnaya Square.

“Russia has not seen anything like these nationwide protests before,” said Boris Kagarlitsky from Moscow’s Globalization Institute.

The Duma is widening the treason law to catch most forms of political dissent, and unwelcome forms of journalism. Jury trials for state crimes are to be abolished.

Yevgeny Kiseloyov at the Moscow Times said it feels eerily like December 1 1934 when Stalin unveiled his “Enemies of the People” law, kicking off the Great Terror.

The omens are not good in China either. Taxis are being bugged by state police. The great unknown is how Beijing will respond as its state-directed export strategy hits a brick wall, leaving exposed a vast eyesore of concrete and excess plant.

Exports fell 2.2pc in November. Toy, textile, footwear, and furniture plants are being closed across Guangdong, now the riot hub of South China. Some 40m Chinese workers are expected to lose their jobs. Party officials have warned of “mass-scale social turmoil”.

The Politburo is giving mixed signals. We don’t yet know how much of the country’s plan to boost domestic demand through a $586bn stimulus package is real, and how much is a wish-list sent to party bosses in the hinterland without funding.

Shortly after President Hu Jintao said China is “losing competitive edge in the world market”, we saw a move towards export subsidies for the steel industry and a dip in the yuan peg – even though China already has the world’s biggest reserves ($2 trillion) and the biggest trade surplus ($40bn a month).

So is the Communist Party mulling a 1930s “beggar-thy-neighbour” strategy of devaluation to export its way out of trouble? Such raw mercantilism can only draw a sharp retort from Washington and Brussels in this climate.

“During a global slowdown, you can’t have countries trying to take advantage of others by manipulating their currencies,” said Frank Vargo from the US National Association of Manufacturers.

It is a view shared entirely by President-elect Barack Obama. “China must change its currency practices. Because it pegs its currency at an artificially low rate, China is running massive current account surpluses. This is not good for American firms and workers, not good for the world,” he said in October. The new intake of radical Democrats on Capitol Hill will hold him to it.

There has been much talk lately of America’s Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, which set off the protectionist dominoes in 1930. It is usually invoked by free traders to make the wrong point. The relevant message of Smoot-Hawley is that America was then the big exporter, playing the China role. By resorting to tariffs, it set off retaliation, and was the biggest victim of its own folly.

Britain and the Dominions retreated into Imperial Preference. Other countries joined. This became the “growth bloc” of the 1930s, free from the deflation constraints of the Gold Standard. High tariffs stopped the stimulus leaking out.

It was a successful strategy – given the awful alternatives – and was the key reason why Britain’s economy contracted by just 5pc during the Depression, against 15pc for France, and 30pc for the US.

Could we see such a closed “growth bloc” emerging now, this time led by the US, entailing a massive rupture of world’s trading system? Perhaps.

This crisis has already brought us a monetary revolution as interest rates approach zero across the G10. It may overturn the “New World Order” as well, unless we move with great care in grim months ahead. This is where events turn dangerous.

The last great era of globalisation peaked just before 1914. You know the rest of the story.

Technorati Tags: riots, insurrection

Source: Prison Planet

…

Speaking on Tulsa Oklahoma’s 1170 KFAQ, when asked who was behind threats of martial law and civil unrest if the bailout bill failed, Senator James Inhofe named Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson as the source.

“Somebody in D.C. was feeding you guys quite a story prior to the bailout, a story that if we didn’t do this we were going to see something on the scale of the depression, there were people talking about martial law being instituted, civil unrest….who was feeding you guys this stuff?,” asked host Pat Campbell.

“That’s Henry Paulson,” responded Inhofe, “We had a conference call early on, it was on a Friday I think – a week and half before the vote on Oct. 1. So it would have been the middle … what was it – the 19th of September, we had a conference call. In this conference call – and I guess there’s no reason for me not to repeat what he said, but he said – he painted this picture you just described. He said, ‘This is serious. This is the most serious thing that we faced.’”

Inhofe said that Paulson told members of Congress the crisis would be “far worse than the great depression” if Congress didn’t authorize the bill to buy out toxic debt, a proposal “which he abandoned the day after he got the money,” added Inhofe.
…

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Technorati Tags: Martial Law

Source: Prison Planet

The man who predicted the 1987 stock market crash and the fall of the Soviet Union is now forecasting revolution in America, food riots and tax rebellions – all within four years, while cautioning that putting food on the table will be a more pressing concern than buying Christmas gifts by 2012.

Gerald Celente, the CEO of Trends Research Institute, is renowned for his accuracy in predicting future world and economic events, which will send a chill down your spine considering what he told Fox News this week.

Celente says that by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts.

Full Story

Technorati Tags: revolution in America

Source: globeandmail.com

Sounding presidential, Senator Barack Obama said Wednesday he would order a surge of U.S. troops – perhaps 15,000 or more – to Afghanistan as soon as he reached the White House.

“We’re confronting an urgent crisis in Afghanistan,” Mr. Obama, the Democratic contender and now clear front-runner to replace George W. Bush, said Wednesday.

“It’s time to heed the call … for more troops. That’s why I’d send at least two or three additional brigades to Afghanistan,” he said in his most hawkish promise to date.

A U.S. army brigade includes about 5,000 soldiers along with tanks, armoured personnel carriers and helicopter gunships.

Seeking to deflect attacks that he is dangerously inexperienced in foreign policy, Mr. Obama huddled with a high-profile panel of experts before a news conference aimed at showcasing his command of global affairs.

“The terrorists who attacked us on 9/11 are still at large and plotting,” he said, echoing Mr. Bush’s oft-repeated refrain.

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Technorati Tags: Barack Obama