Are we prepared for flu outbreak?

By Matrix | Published: August 4, 2009

For most people, August is a month for swimming pools and summer vacations, with the aching misery of fall and winter flu outbreaks still safely distant.
This year, however, public health experts say the H1N1 flu that emerged in April is poised to return with a vengeance much earlier than the regular seasonal flu — possibly as soon as the end of this month, when many schools reopen.
Drug makers are scheduled to begin testing this week of two potential vaccines to help prevent H1N1, or swine flu. Immunizations against the disease, however, aren’t expected to be available until mid-October.
Even then, the government plans to first distribute the H1N1 shots to 159 million people — about half the U.S. population — in certain high-risk groups, such as pregnant women, children, adults with chronic diseases, health care workers and emergency medical workers.
People in those groups also will receive priority in getting doses of antiviral medication such as Tamiflu. Government officials say they don’t expect shortages of H1N1 vaccines, although they caution that availability and demand may be unpredictable
If supplies are limited at first, the remainder of the population– most of the healthy adults who help provide the nation’s services and keep its economy running — will have to wait to receive vaccine and anti-flu medications, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
In the meantime, public health experts say, individuals and families might be asked to stay home from work, school, church, public events, public transportation and other crowded places for as long as four months — the worst-case scenario — to help prevent the spread of disease.
While inconvenient, such “social distancing” measures can help contain an epidemic, saving lives and ultimately saving companies money by keeping workers healthy and productive, said Dr. Bruce Lee, an infectious diseases expert at the University of Pittsburgh.
“Pay very close attention to what the CDC and what other public health officials are saying — and that’s actually a big problem because I think a lot of people don’t pay much attention — and take it seriously,” said Dr. Lee, an assistant professor of medicine, epidemiology and biomedical informatics. “If they say to implement social distancing, do it.”